​It’s MCS season. That stands for Mesoscale Convective System, i.e. complex of storms. Sometimes they’ll be referred to as an MCC which is a Mesoscale Convective Complex. Either way it’s a line of storms that can produce some hail, but mostly torrential rain over a short amount of time and damaging wind. We’ve already seen a couple of these move through the state. You can see the result below with the rain totals from Sunday morning’s event.

Rainfall Sunday morning.

Overall the month of May was very beneficial in catching up with rainfall and June is right on track. As a result, we’ve knocked down quite a bit of the drought, but as you can see we’re still below normal for the year in many areas.

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May’s rainfall totals.

Drought conditions.

Rain deficit or surplus by actual totals.

Rain deficit or surplus measured by percentage from normal.

You can see how the Jetstream this week builds a NW flow aloft before transitioning to a quick a zonal westerly flow the following week. The colors represent little disturbances that move through which trigger these complex’s of storms that typically start over eastern Colorado or New Mexico. They travel E/SE and bring much needed rain but sometimes with severe weather depending on the timing. In most cases the storms start late day and by the time they get into Oklahoma, it’s late overnight and early morning. Tap to animate the map below.

Center Phase Energy

Jetstream animation (tap to play)

Take a look at the next couple of days with respect to these storms. Our next event moves through Sunday evening/overnight. Some of these could potentially produce a tornado early on due to decent shear and instability in the atmosphere. After that the favorable shear weakens for tornadoes. The next cluster is much weaker and moves through Tuesday morning and what may be our final cluster Tuesday evening. Signals after that are too weak to detect significant storm activity, but the pattern is still favorable for some surprise events mid to late week. I’ll have to update you through my social media broadcasts. You can also see how much rain is expected and across what areas for the week.

Rainfall animation through Tuesday.

Estimated rainfall for the week.

Center Phase Energy

Speaking of tornadoes, where are we for the seasonal count? Well, typically we see about 44 up to this point in the year and our current number is 37. I don’t think anyone is going to complain about a lower tornado season. Going forward we pick up another 13 through the rest of the year to average out to 57.

As far as the temperature trend goes, expect readings to hold in the 80s for awhile. If the upper ridge starts to build in the following week, those oppressive 90s will return.  Let’s hope not! -AT

OKC Temperature Trend.

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