Are you ready for a welcomed change? How does a little less heat and more rain sound to you?

We’ll start with the Jetstream again to tell us the story. It starts out with the upper ridge out west. This places us in a NW flow aloft which allows weak fronts and upper level vorticity (upper disturbances) to generate rainfall. As typical for summer, it won’t be widespread or drought quenching, but it will be welcome relief! The pattern holds through Wednesday before the ridge shifts back to the east. This movement shuts down the rain as the ridge now becomes more of a block. 

Jetstream pattern Monday.

Jetstream Animation (tap to play)

Jetstream pattern Sunday.

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By 3pm Monday, a weak front is starting to trigger scattered showers and storms along and near the boundary. These will continue through the afternoon and pop us elsewhere as the high resolution model indicates. It looks like a shot-gun blast of bb’s. So this forecast isn’t a guarantee that you’ll get rain, but at least the increase in clouds should help to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler.  Models show a smoothed rainfall average through Wednesday night of about a quarter to half inch, but keep in mind they won’t be able to detect these 1+” downpours that often occur.

Weak front Monday afternoon.

Scattered showers and storms Monday. Tap to play.

Oklahoma rain expected through Wednesday.

If we expand our view out of Oklahoma for the week and look at the rest of the country, you can see where the rain will fall over the next 7 days. Compare this with the areas hit hard by this summer’s drought and some of those will get relief.

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National rainfall for the week.

Current National Drought Conditions.

Earlier in the long-term data there were some indications that the latter part of August wouldn’t necessarily be that hot and dry. Unfortunately today’s ensemble runs show the upper ridge is here to stay and parked pretty close to Oklahoma. Only slight deviations are expected. This means the occasional cooler day with a chance of some rain, but otherwise status quo of hot and dry. The good news is that the heat isn’t above normal as indicated by the 850 mb temperature departure animation. There are no bright red areas near us, so that means less 100s and more upper 90s.

850mg Temperature departure from normal. Tap to play.

Center Phase Energy

As for this week, the OKC temperature trend starts out nice, but heats up by the weekend. Remember to download my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, to get temperatures for your back yard. It’s available on the Apple and Google App stores.

OKC Temperature Trend.

One last thing to mention before I wrap this up. If you’re looking to sell your home or wanting to buy one, please reach out to me and Jodi over at Team Tuttle Realty. We’d love to help you in any way we can! =) -AT

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