In prior blogs and video forecast discussions I had mentioned a potential change in the Jetstream pattern for the second half of August that would provide us some relief from the heat and bring occasional rounds of rain. That data looked solid for about 2 weeks and then last week the models all flipped back to mostly hot and dry. This week the models are back to the original idea from before. This is great news of course, but I just don’t like flip flopping a forecast.

So what’s the latest? The upper Jet is going to place us in a continued N/NW flow aloft which drives in occasional cold fronts and upper level disturbances to generate rain. What that does for the overall temperature and precipitation trend can be seen across the country in the maps below. I’m ready for break and I bet you are too!

Jetstream on Monday.

Jetstream animation (tap to play)

Jetstream on Sunday.

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook.

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook.

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook.

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook.

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Before the front arrives late Tuesday, things are going to heat up. High temperatures will be back around 100+ for many. Compressional warming will really heat things up ahead of the boundary. The cold front will trigger a few storms late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as it pushes through the state. A decent north wind will accompany the front. The cooler air time of arrival will be around 5pm for OKC and Tulsa. Look at those temperatures on Wednesday!

Temperatures Monday.

Temperatures Tuesday.

Cold Front Position Tuesday Afternoon.

Temperatures Wednesday Afternoon.

Unfortunately there’s not a huge rain signal with this front, but there is a stronger rain signal over the weekend where most of the rainfall on the map is indicated. We need more rain as the drought has expanded across the state.

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Total rainfall through Sunday.

Current Drought Conditions.

The temperature trend for OKC brings a welcome relief midweek onward. As long as the upper pattern holds, we may be finished with 100 degree temperatures for the rest of the season. Fingers crossed! -AT

OKC Temperature Trend

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