The good news for this week is that the weather for trick-or-treating will be perfect! Also good news is that we’re going to get some much needed rainfall at the end of the week. The bad news is that it will be accompanied by severe weather.

Up first, expect temperatures to hold into the mid to upper 60s across the state Monday evening with light and variable winds. So the kiddos will be comfortable collecting that candy!

Temperatures at 7pm on Monday.

Our next focus is on the rainfall. We need it badly. Take a look at how the year has looked thus far. Many areas are a foot or more below normal. This places most of the state regions in the top 20 driest.

Rainfall departure from normal for 2022.
Regional rainfall table.

So the other good news is that relief is on the way as a strong storm system arrives across NM on Friday and swings through Oklahoma on Saturday. At the same time a weak cold front will stall across the I-44 corridor Friday evening. This is a perfect setup for heavy rainfall, but also some severe weather. That strong upper low carries lift in the atmosphere denoted by the red splotches that rotate around it. Look how quickly it moves through so that by Sunday it’s already across the Great Lakes.

Upper storm system Friday
Jetstream animation.
Cold front Friday.

We mentioned the threat of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center already has our area highlighted for Friday and they will massage this outlook over the coming days. We can look at the model data to get an idea on ingredients that will be present. I’m using the European for this update as it appears to have the best handle on things. It returns just enough low level moisture to increase instability and with the position of the upper system, enough shear to produce severe thunderstorms. These may include a few supercells with tornado potential late Friday afternoon and evening. You know my rule though, no tornado talk until 48 hours out from the event. Too much can change. Suffice it to say, damaging wind and hail will be on the table however. I’ll watch closely to see how things look in the tornado department and update you on social media. The two maps below are the CAPE/Shear and the forecast sounding profile for just south of OKC. You want the red/black arrows to make a 60 to 90 degrees angle if rotating storms are your thing.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook.
CAPE vs Shear (best in C/S OK)
Forecast sounding showing potential tornado potential in C OK.

The timing on the rain will be Thursday night across the TX/OK Panhandle and then scattered shower activity developing during the day Friday. Stronger thunderstorms should hold off until mid to late afternoon. Occasional severe storms will continue overnight through Saturday morning as the storms travel from west to east. By noon on Saturday, most of the strongest activity will be out of Oklahoma with lingering showers through early evening, especially across N and E OK. Rainfall amounts on average will be a widespread 2-5″. Some places may get even higher totals with flash flooding.

Rainfall animation (tap to play).
Model blend of expected rainfall totals Friday/Saturday.

As far as temperatures are concerned, expect a great trend this week, with a much cooler setup from the weekend into the following.

OKC Temperature Trend.

I’ll be watching things closely during the week, so make sure you follow my social media accounts. The links are on the right sidebar of this website. Also, don’t forget, next weekend we “Fall Back” an hour, we means we trade an extra hour for sleep for an earlier sunset. So don’t forget to set those manual clocks next Saturday night. -AT

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