NW Flow Begins and Severe Storms Continue

We are officially transitioning to our summertime upper-level pattern where the Jetstream configuration changes to a ridge of higher heights across the SW US and a NW flow overhead across the Southern Plains. This typically causes storms to move from NW to SE in their tracks. Some form across Oklahoma, other clusters will form in Colorado and W Kanas and drift southeast. Timing and placement can be difficult as models are notoriously unhelpful in the small details.

The broad picture will be upper-level disturbances rotating through Oklahoma Sunday night, Monday, and Tuesday. These will trigger showers and storms. Some will be severe with damaging wind a main component, although a tornado or two is likely Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evenings. A quiet day for Wednesday before just isolated activity is expected across OK on Thursday and Friday. A stronger wave will cause more widespread activity next Sunday.

The AI model shows the threat region for Monday and Tuesday. That corresponds with the other two maps of CAPE and Shear. The instability is off the chart, which is why these storms can develop very quickly and drop a lot of wind. The CAPE is a combination of the moisture and the temperatures. Which by the way, will be very hot to start the week. That will allow the CAP to break in favored areas near the dryline or with any other trigger nearby.

Speaking of the temperatures, take a look at Monday. When we factor in the humidity, take a look at the heat index on Tuesday. This will feel like the worst day of the week. Wednesday may be hotter, but it’s because of dry air has moved in, so it won’t feel so oppressive.

Models won’t be very helpful for actual times of storms and locations. So be sure to use my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, to watch radar trends for outdoor work and events. Old school meteorology says to watch the triple point Monday afternoon in NW OK. Storms that begin there will move SE (into C OK by evening) and may have a tornado threat. Prior to that, we should have some storms early Monday morning across C OK as well. Tuesday is a mess with storms likely across SW OK and maybe a different area across NE OK. The extended 3-panel animation shows Thursday, Friday, and Sunday for rain. Also note the signal for damaging wind of 80 mph. Don’t pay attention to exact placement, the take home is what’s inside these monsters.

Rainfall amounts will be very nice again. In some cases, it’s too nice. Flash flooding is always a concern this time of year with slow-moving storms. Outside of that, you shouldn’t have to water the plants or gardens much this week.

Temperatures will be hot and in some cases very sticky. It’s that time of year unfortunately, so get ready for that summer heat! -AT