Tropics Provide Heat Relief and Rain This Week

This would have been a little uneventful for Oklahoma if it weren’t for the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical disturbance will work through into the Texas coastline this week and that will bring moisture into Oklahoma midweek.
In the short term, I can’t rule out a stray shower across W or SE OK Monday or Tuesday, but the main timeframe for rainfall will be Wednesday and Thursday. The Jetstream shows how an upper ridge will guide systems across the Gulf into Texas to start the week and then it will transition to an upper ridge out west putting us back into a NW flow aloft. Depending on how fast this pattern flips, we may see additional showers and storms Saturday night and Sunday as that flow develops. Otherwise, it may push back a day into Monday. So at least the first part of our upcoming weekend looks dry. Fingers crossed on day 2! Play the Jetstream map animation to see how the pattern flips. Remember, those areas of red/yellow are the upper-level vorticity areas that generate rainfall. Oh and that upper ridge across the east this week is going to crank up the heat for those areas with heat index values around 100 degrees!



Our best rainfall comes midweek on Wednesday and Thursday. There might be some lingering isolated activity on Friday. Rainfall animations are shown for both midweek and Sunday.


Rainfall amounts will be extremely generous down south and west. Speaking of the south, take a look at the rainfall expected along the Texas coast. Some models indicate there could be higher amounts than this, so flash flooding might be a possibility in South Texas.


As far as temperatures go, the tropics will help to cool things down, but once the pattern shifts, the heat will return along with those higher heat indices. Stay cool and hydrated this summer! -AT
