Hurricane Beryl and a Stormy Independence Day

The earliest and strongest CAT 4 hurricane has formed in an area that typically doesn’t see that activity in June, likely thanks to above-average sea temperatures. This storm may hit Jamaica on its way to the Yucatan Peninsula. After that, models diverge with some bringing it to the Texas coastline. While we watch that, a decent cold front will work through Oklahoma on our July 4th holiday causing some Mother Nature fireworks of her own.

The Jetstream animation will show an upper ridge aloft transitioning to a split with a high centered across the SE US and one across the SW. This will cause a trap in between S Texas and Mexico. So we’ll need to keep an eye on that, could lead to massive flooding down that way. Otherwise, weak upper disturbances will ride over the top of the ridge here in Oklahoma and allow a few showers and storms out near the panhandle for a couple of days before the front arrives Thursday. Additional lift will move across Saturday producing more rainfall for the state.

Here are the latest images from Beryl. The satellite view as of Sunday with the well-defined eyewall. The official track from the NHC. The potential direct hit to Jamaica on Wednesday. And finally, the long-range models showing a large spread at the end of its journey.

Focusing back home, the next decent front arrives Thursday. Look for scattered showers and storms along the front Thursday afternoon across N OK. That activity will work south during the evening, so have a backup plan for your 4th activities and it’s a good reminder that lightning, pools, and lakes don’t mix! So be careful out there! We’ll have the heat of course before the front starts to cool things down.

That front is really going to cool things down for Friday. Take a look at the afternoon high temperatures! Wow! Other opportunities for rain will return on Saturday as well.

Temperatures are going to be about where they have been until the front arrives. Be careful out there for your holiday week, seek lots of shade, ample water, and sunscreen! And remember, you can track these summer storms with my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo. Look for it on the Apple and Google app stores today! -AT

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