Arctic Pipe-Bursting Temps Coming for Oklahoma

We’ve already had a frigid start to the New Year. Even had a huge snowstorm for a large area of the Southern Plains. But now things are going to turn pipe-bursting ugly.
This forecast is going to lean heavily on the European model. It has the best skill scores long-range. The Canadian is also giving some teeth to the Euro as well. With that said, here are the details.
The Jetstream is about to make a dramatic change with an upper ridge pumping across the West Coast into western Canada. This allows a perfect track of surface high pressure to move across the Rockies and down into Oklahoma and Texas. This provides us with a direct blow of the coldest air and the least modification. It also makes it more difficult to mix or erode before the next reinforcement arrives. Overall the rest of the month will be very cold.

Take a look at the temperatures from normal departure. These numbers are up to -50 degrees below normal. In other words, if your average high temperature for this time of year is 25 degrees, the model says to expect a high of -25 degrees. That’s nasty cold!

The cold front that leads to this mess arrives during the day Friday. There is hope we can all warm into the 60s making for a great day. Often times arctic air comes in sooner than advertised, so my confidence is not that high we’ll reach those numbers. Regardless it will be a cold weekend and temperatures will be down into the teens again by Saturday night. The Euro hints that we may drop below zero across parts of Oklahoma Monday morning. Around these parts, a temperature of 17 degrees held for more than 24 hours leads to significant water line breaks in the cities. We may not get into the 20s until the end of the following week. So get ready to drip those lines so you don’t lose water.



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Now let’s talk about snow. Due to the strength and source region of the cold air, it often squeezes out snowfall even without a strong upper-level storm system. So expect at least some flurries to light snow over the weekend and into the following week. A stronger wave may produce more significant snows across Texas on Tuesday. It’s a long way out and beyond this week’s forecast period, so confidence is low at this time.

The OKC temperature trend will be representative of the rest of the state. Just remove a few degrees up north and add a few down south. Once we get to the weekend, expect these numbers to change as the models grasp the true depth of the cold air. I expect the temperatures to be brought downward on Saturday and into the following week. You can get your latest forecast on my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo. Download it on Apple and Google app stores. Stay tuned over the following days for live updates on my social! -AT
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