well, the one attempt at convective initiation failed north of
Richfield. Despite the strong surface convergence occurring now with
good southeast winds, the lack of appreciable moisture is certainly a
mitigating factor…and the main upper level wave is still a bit too
far west to compensate for lack of moisture. 80 degree temperature
over a 46 dewpoint supports about 1000-1200 J/kg CAPE here, but all
the cumulus just looks really flat now to the west, as the strongest
convergence is in Baca County where the really dry air is (30
dewpoints or lower!). I’ll keep watching things through 7pm, but the
way it looks now, this gamble I took did not pay off. Really no
biggie. I’ll be on vacation to chase May 3-16.

Source: Under the Meso

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