Finally Some Rain Returns to Oklahoma

It’s been a mostly dry start to our Spring season and as a result, the fire danger has been moderate to high and the drought conditions have expanded. The good is we’ll get some rain this week for relief. There is a threat of severe weather and I’ll dive into that below.

Here is the latest regarding any burn bans and the drought.

The Jetream will bring two disturbances and an upper-level low across the region. The first two will generate benign rainfall, while the third could trigger severe storms.

You may have noticed the date/time on that last graphic. It says Sunday morning. If you recall, anytime a storm system moves overhead in the morning hours, the severe magnitude of storms is typically very low. This is due to a lack of significant instability and a strong capping inversion a few thousand feet off the ground. Another key takeaway is the position. The circle highlighted the most favored area at that time of day, which means it shifts east as the day goes on. That doesn’t give Oklahoma much of a chance to see severe weather this weekend.

The AI models are hinting at the same region for severe storms, but I need to see better model indications to get excited about it. We’ll know those type of details by Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has also highlighted the areas to watch.

We should receive some decent rainfall totals across the southern areas of the state. Could use more elsewhere, but the season just began. I will say, that it appears we are in one of those patterns where most of the storms are timed out of synch and most of the action is east of Oklahoma when it comes to severe weather. I don’t mind that at all. As far as timing goes, look for scattered showers Wednesday morning, Friday, and a few late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Temperatures are going to be quite pleasant for a while. It is a warmer pattern but there is always caution for a freeze or frost through Easter. So remember that when you plant early. You may have to cover that tender vegetation. You can track the leaf index here and check the date in your area of the last freeze. -AT

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