Wet Pattern Returns and Severe Weather Expo
This week is starting out amazing, and then a pattern shift brings back opportunities for rainfall. Also, Jodi and I will be at the Severe Weather Awareness Expo at Woodland Hills Mall this Saturday.
Before I dive into your forecast for the week, make sure your subscriptions are updated. Many expired over the past two months, and you don’t want to miss my live tornado coverage. For the various options, go here: https://aarontuttleweather.com/donate-and-support-options/
Last week was amazing with respect to rainfall, which we desperately needed. The drought had expanded quite a bit. It’s a lagging indicator, so the map will be updated soon to reflect the recent rain. Of course, this time of year comes with occasional flash flooding, and no doubt that was an issue for the hard-hit regions.
Unfortunately, we also ended up with a few weak tornadoes and damaging wind reports. The NWS has counted four tornadoes thus far, and you can read the update here: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OUN&product=pns
This week, the Jetstream will transition from a westerly flow to a southwesterly flow. This will open up the Gulf of America (are we calling it that now?) for moisture to return. That will lead to a passing sprinkle on Thursday and Friday until more substantial rain returns Friday night through the weekend.
The model precipitation animation indicates a large area receiving rainfall this weekend. It likely won’t be a washout, but you will have to plan around it. Use my free weather app to track the rounds. Regarding severe weather, the outlook is posted below from the SPC, analogs, and AI. My thinking is that the best day would be Sunday with respect to stronger shear. Saturday may have a few storms with hail and wind. It’s a long way out, of course. Everything depends on how/when the upper waves move across.
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Assuming the pattern holds, there is a decent amount of rainfall expected.
Temperatures will be quite mild this week. The humidity and wind will gradually increase as well. Come see us at the mall between 11-2pm this Saturday!
