We are heading into our peak tornado season for Oklahoma, mid May. Right on time the weather pattern will change to promote a more favorable environment for severe storms across the central and southern plains.
At this point, just understand that the window for severe weather is open starting on Friday, but the specifics for each day will be different and will change. Although it’s a long window, we won’t see storms every day. We also won’t see tornadoes every day either.
Keep in mind that at any given time, there are a few things that can mess up a day with tornado potential:
- Storm system arrives either too early or too late in the day
- Residual rain and clouds from the day before lingers too long and removes or greatly reduces the instability
- Wind shear can be weak at lower to mid levels with respect to wind speeds, or can be too veered at/near the surface from the southwest, limiting adequate turning.
- CAP (inversion) is too strong and not enough heating to break it
- Weaker jet stream in mid to upper levels and/or in the wrong position
All of these are elements are not known until about 48 hours out or sometimes not until the day of. It is the way it is.
So at this point, just pay attention and be weather aware should a storm impact you. Some days they’ll be out west, others central, and others east. Regardless, rest easy, I got you! -AT
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