Severe Storms, Flooding, and Real Fall Arrives

This week, we will have an active Jetstream influencing Oklahoma and surrounding areas before calming down and ushering much cooler weather. Yes, Fall will actually feel like Fall this time around!
Let’s talk about the first wave of instability to arrive. Although the pattern supports severe storms, most of the life associated with the broad upper low across the Rockies will eject into Kanas and Nebraska. This allows just some isolated storm activity to develop across W OK. As it looks now, moisture is minimal, which causes the cloud base to be very high up in the atmosphere. The sounding profile is indicative of rotating barber pole supercells producing low precipitation but with large hail. The tornado threat should be zero as a result.



The second wave is a direct hit as the base of the trough hangs out to our west. This focuses heavy lift (indicated by the dark red colors on the Jetstream map) to be centered right overhead for Oklahoma. This will bring very heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding. The shear is much weaker on Wednesday but moisture is a little better. So I would assume marginally severe storms with a little wind and hail, but primarily focused on the heavy rain. A model blend of rain totals is a conservative 1-3″. There will be a few areas that received as much as 5″ not shown on the map.



Once we get through that system by Thursday morning, very cool air will move into the state. If you remember my blog last Sunday I alluded to this when I showed you that blue patch of cold temperatures in W Canada. Well, it’s time for that to come south. However, as you can tell by the animation, it’s only a glancing blow. So temperatures won’t get out of hand, but it sure will be a nice change from the extended heat. Look at the potential low temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday morning! Brr!!!



The OKC Temperature outlook has a mix for everyone. If you love the heat, Monday and Tuesday are for you. Beyond that, the Fall lovers get their turn. Enjoy! -AT
