One of the things a typical El Nino can provide Oklahoma in the wintertime is more moisture to work with. While that doesn’t always translate to snow or ice, it often becomes much-needed rainfall. We’ll see a repeat performance later this week starting on Thursday. This unsettled pattern will linger into our Christmas Day.
For once western Oklahoma was rewarded with hefty rainfall with as much as 3″ in some areas last week.
This week another upper-level low will slowly move through the region. Models are at odds if the system clears out in time for Christmas Day. I’m of the impression that it will linger so the rainfall that is generated from the SW flow aloft starting early Thursday will continue off and on through the holiday. Take a look at the Jetstream animation. Notice how the red areas which indicate lift in the atmosphere start to move in Thursday and repeated rounds move across until the upper low moves through.
If you look at the precipitation generation, you can see how it’s spotty and inconsistent at times. This means the entire period like last week won’t be a washout, but there will be off/on bouts of rainfall to work around.
Now a model blend of the data produces some very nice amounts for the eastern half of Oklahoma this time around along with North Texas. As far as any snowfall goes, once again there’s not a lot of cold air to work with, so expect only light amounts in the panhandle region.
So the wildcard is Christmas Day. Depending on the timing of the upper low, we could start out dry in the morning with showers late day. Another solution is to clear out Sunday night. I’ll have to update you on these specifics as getting this detailed this far out is a recipe for trouble. Temperatures shown here are with a slower storm system and weaker cold front. If the front were to move in much faster, then drop these numbers into the mid to upper 40s for Christmas Day.
In the meantime, expect a decent warmup after a cold start to the week. Enjoy the leadup into our holiday and if you don’t check back in between now and then, I hope you have a wonderful Christmas on behalf of me, Jodi, Lil’ Larry and Penelope! -AT