Fire Watch, Freeze, Extreme Wind and Tornadoes?

This week has the potential to be quite interesting. A freeze will set back the early blooms and if the European is right, severe weather will end the week on Sunday.
The first thing to mention is that although there will be some passing clouds and virga Monday afternoon, no rain is expected until Sunday. As a result with strong winds kicking in, a fire threat will emerge for Tuesday and a Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for the western half of Oklahoma.


A strong cold front will move in Tuesday night, likely before midnight for OKC. Temperatures will fall below freezing across many areas of Oklahoma Wednesday and Thursday morning. At least daytime temperatures will rebound a bit for Wednesday.




Then all eyes turn to the weekend as our next big upper-level trough kicks through the S Plains. As of today, there is a lot of model disagreement on the placement and timing. The European is faster and the position is favorable for severe storms in Oklahoma Sunday evening. Notice the big wave in the jetstream animation below as well as the surface map with the dryline out west. The forecast sounding for OKC indicates trouble could be brewing. However, we are several days away and this model could easily not pan out. We are getting into that time of year again and I don’t like to talk about tornadoes until 48 hours out from an event as too many things can change. So why even mention the Euro a week away then you ask? Because other people will and you need to know there is a lot of uncertainty at this point, but a good reminder to clean out your storm shelters and review your severe weather plan for the family. Other opportunities will present themselves as we get deeper into March. By the way, the European model indicates a lot of wind on the back side of that storm system on Sunday night and Monday.




Temperatures are going to be ridiculously nice and even record-breaking to start the week. Up and down trends are expected this time of year, so we’re not completely done with some of our cold mornings. Planting is best done in April as a result. -AT

