Cooler and Wetter Pattern with Less Wind
After we get past any severe weather for Today through Tuesday morning, a cooler and wet pattern will develop. We’ll also get a break from the Oklahoma wind machine.
The cooler weather is a nice touch after hitting 100 degrees late last week across W OK. I guess the ongoing drought played a bigger factor in reaching those types of readings early in the year.
Be sure to mention Aaron Tuttle when you call (405) 820-1193!
The secret sauce for this week is the broad southwesterly flow in the Jetstream. Oftentimes, this can bring severe weather if we are loaded up with heat and high dew points. This time around, we’ll be lacking that, and the Jet will have weaker winds with it. Usually, I just show you the upper disturbances (red/yellow) which trigger the rainfall, but I’m also showing you the animation of the mid-level winds, which are excessively weak. This prevents severe storms and allows weaker storms to move more slowly, providing better rainfall. This also allows our surface wind to decrease as well.
Animation (tap to play)
Even the experimental AI models are struggling to find severe weather targets for the latter half of May. Unprecedented! All of those hype-master severe weather fear mongers aren’t going to be able to post all of those colorful doom and gloom graphics for days on end. Oh, the horror!
For today, AI does paint KS in the bullseye for all modes of severe weather, including flash flooding. Some models hint at 6+ inches of rainfall over parts of KS. All models keep OK capped to prevent severe storms. Should one go anyway, it’ll be hail and wind as the primary threat.
Regarding rainfall in Oklahoma, widespread 2 to 3″ is expected this week. Some isolated areas will no doubt get more. Timing for rain-generating systems will be:
1. Tonight through the early morning
2. Tuesday night to Wednesday morning
3. Wed night through Friday morning
4. Friday night into Saturday morning
5. Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon
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Temperatures are going to be very cool this week, and depending on the timing of rainfall, you can spend an afternoon in the 60s! Enjoy the rain without the tornadoes!
