Typical Mid-June Pattern

In June we can get those strong cold fronts, an MCS, dry and humid days, and occasional isolated to scattered rainy days. This will be one of those weeks.

We received some much needed rainfall over the past few days. Even western Oklahoma fianally got something measurable. The drought indicator lags a week behind, but it shows we do have a need for more. Even severe storms snuck in there on occasion.

The Jetstream is in a NW flow transitioning into a westerly flow by the weekend. This isn’t completely dry, although dominated by a mostly dry week. Little disturbances not well tracked can lead to surprises in the forecast.

The pattern can lead to great temperatures after a system and front move through. Yesterday was amazing and today will be just about as nice! Take advantage of it because Wednesday will be gross again.

Most of the signals for rainfall are weak and transient this week. For example, a few showers or storms will cross over from SW KS into NW OK late tonight into the morning. A few more may develop Tuesday afternoon across N and C OK. Wednesday, decent storms will affect SE KS and some of those should drift into NE and N OK during the evening/night. A cold front associated with that activity will move through the state Thursday triggering at least widely scattered showers and storms. We’ll likely see isolated activity Saturday afternoon across SW and C OK and another MCS may move through the state Sunday night. This isn’t to say we may get a suprise storm outside of these windows, but those are the current signals in the data. SPC doesn’t have much in the way of organized severe weather, but that’s the way it goes in the Summer as the signals are too weak.

Regarding rainfall amounts, even with all the above that might sound wet to you, the coverage is sparse overall given each day. So the week’s totals will look better across the NE. One caveot however, summertime storms can move very slow, so isolated flooding can occur without much notice and these rainfall maps won’t account for that.

Temperatures will be up and down this week. Make it a great one! -AT

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