Another storm system out in S California is approaching and kicking out waves of upper energy. A few of those generated cloud cover and passing showers on Saturday. A stronger one will arrive this evening and coupled with the last 24 hours of deep moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, it means thunderstorms. Some of those will be severe with large hail and damaging wind. The storms should kick off in E TX panhandle/W OK by late afternoon and work east during the evening hours. Instability and wind shear will improve during the evening through about midnight. So any storm able to get rooted in the boundary layer (ie not high based) will be able to tap into an isolated tornado threat. This does include C/S OK. By 2am the storms should have weakened and moved into SE OK. Monday SE OK will get additional severe storms in the late afternoon with all three threats.

Let’s look a few maps:


Most aggressive model indicating the most likely area the atmosphere will be capable of supporting a tornado, which is across C/SC OK. This is around the 10pm time frame.

The next several images are from different models predicting the structure of the storms as they move through this evening. Each has a different look. The individual isolated storms are supercells, while the solid line is more of a squall-line. Different weather threats are typically assigned to each category. Usually the tornado threat is much lower in a squall-line vs a supercell given this type of setup.

hires_ref_okc_28 hires_ref_okc_19 hrrr_ref_okc_16 wrf_ref_nmm_okc_28 wrf_ref_arw_okc_27

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