A storm system will slowly move out of the Rockies this weekend and trigger a few storms across the state Sunday and Monday as it moves through the S Plains. Some of these storms will likely be severe with a hail, wind, and tornado risk. The most likely area is the W half of the state on Sunday and E half on Monday. We can fine tune things once we get closer. Keep in mind that on both days there will be many hours of dry weather, so Sunday looks good in general.

Today, models have the storms in far W OK late afternoon and they would move east during the evening if they hold together. There will be a strong CAP in place over W/C OK, but the dryline should break through that layer in W OK. On Monday the dryline should be near the I-35 corridor. So that either keeps the OKC metro in the storm initiation zone or just off to the east.

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Here are a couple of computer models for Sunday and Monday. The circled areas are the most likely regions for severe weather. Keep in mind this area will likely move around a little, but this is the general location.

Sunday's severe storm risk.

Sunday’s severe storm risk.

Center Phase Energy

Sunday's tornado threat area.

Sunday’s highest tornado threat area.

Monday's severe weather risk area.

Monday’s severe weather risk area.

Center Phase Energy

I’ll update you again Saturday evening or Sunday morning when we’re within that 24-36 hour window. -AT

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