The cold front that brought 50s and 60s to Oklahoma over the weekend is retreating to the Kansas state line by Monday afternoon. In addition, a dryline will form in the E TX panhandle. A few severe supercell storms should develop along the dryline and move east into W OK during the early evening hours and continue moving east. These storms will be capable of producing tornadoes. They should weaken as they approach the I-35 corridor before midnight.
A second cluster of severe storms will form in SW KS and the OK Panhandle by 7pm and those will also travel east and southeast. Hail and wind are the main threats with these, although a tornado can’t be ruled out either, especially with any cells that develop out ahead of the line near the warm frontal boundary. They should weaken overnight as they approach I-35, which should be after midnight.
The most likely area for severe weather is outlined in the hatched black and red areas in the map below.
The CAPE and Shear overlay from the 4km NAM model also indicate this region as being the one to watch closely.
I will live stream severe weather coverage Monday evening should it look like tornadoes are going to develop. -AT