We talked before that this upcoming week had the potential for some severe weather as CAPE values showed extreme instability each day. We also discussed that there could be a couple of days without any storms due to the CAP holding. Both of these statements are still valid today.
As it appears in today’s model data, scattered storms will form across the TX panhandle this afternoon and few of those drift into SW OK this evening. Hail/wind the primary threat.
Monday, a few more severe storms should form in W/SW OK late day. Hail and wind the primary threat, but a tornado can’t be ruled out.
Tuesday is a repeat of Monday, about the same area, but likely drifting into C OK.
Wednesday the models build a CAP so strong it prevents thunderstorms at all.
Thursday the models hint the CAP will break and severe storms will be located across C OK.
Friday similar to Thursday.
Memorial Day weekend unsettled but still plenty of dry hours.
So the take home is to assume any storm you see during the late afternoon and early evening will have very large hail, damaging winds, and a potential for a tornado this week. Each day will have different degress of wind shear. Some weak, some moderate to strong. The weak shear days hold the lowest tornado threat, while the stronger shear days hold a higher one. In addition, the CAP strength is typically underestimated by models. If that were to be the case this week, then most of it is quiet for the majority of us. Models will handle the shear/CAP better within 24-36 hour from each potential event in general terms. As we go through each day, I’ll update as necessary and outline where the greatest risk is. -AT
SPC Severe Weather Outlooks for M-F listed below: