We’ve escaped this week’s severe weather potential for the most part due to a strong CAP, weak wind shear, subtle forcing, and storm clusters in areas of TX. Each of these works against the extreme instability that is otherwise present. Any or all of those things change and the amount of severe weather experienced across Oklahoma increases exponentially.

Today we find ourselves in another similar situation. The wind shear isn’t that ideal for tornadoes, the CAP is strong, and overnight clusters of rain moving through TX has robbed C OK from low 70 dewpoints leaving us in the low 60s instead. Models seem to think we’re going to hit a high temperature of 80 degrees with a dewpoint of 70 degrees. In that environment they produce scattered severe storms across C OK. The only problem with that is, we’re not likely to have that much low level moisture. That helps to limit the coverage and intensity of storms that do manage to go up this afternoon. Regardless, the main threat is hail and wind with any storm.

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Timing could be as early as 3pm. Any storm that does form will exit C OK this evening. The dryline setting up west of the OKC Metro near hwy 81 will likely be the initiation point for storm development. Will need to watch dewpoint values on the east side of the dryline. Some indications are they could fall even more with drier air mixing down. That further helps eliminate any tornado threat and keeps storms a little weaker. Will have to monitor trends in real-time.

Below is the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for today.

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Severe Weather Risk for Friday.

Severe Weather Risk for Friday.

Tornado risk for Friday.

Tornado risk for Friday.

For details over the weekend see the prior blog entry. -AT

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