So for about a week or so I’ve hinted at a lot of noise in the model data for Christmas weekend. Weak and transient storm signals coming and going. As we get closer that noise is getting stronger. That gives me a little better confidence that indeed a storm system will affect Oklahoma around Christmas weekend. Nothing is set in stone and things are murky because it’s a chaotic weather pattern. Each run of the models presents significantly different outcomes. I’m going to give you one example here.

Below is the GFS model output for the run from last night for Christmas Day. Yes snow totals predicted to be over a foot. Do I think this will happen? No. Do I think it will snow? Yes, and I’ve been leaning that direction for awhile now. However timing is key. The purpose is to show you how models can get carried away. Remember no accurate snow amount prediction can be made beyond 48 hours. Even then that can be erroneous depending upon the complexities of the different weather variables involved.

Outlandish computer model prediction for Christmas Day snowfall.

Outlandish computer model prediction for Christmas Day snowfall.

So what does all of this mean? It means I think there’s a good chance we’ll see snow for Christmas. How much and where exactly are the things to iron out. I’ll be watching trends closely in hopes of narrowing things down for you as soon as possible. Stay tuned! -AT

PS If you haven’t tried my free weather app yet, download ATsWeatherToGo. It contains excellent winter weather information for traveling. Inside my app is Road Angel, a safety feature you can activate that will come to your rescue should you find yourself in car trouble.

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