After being slightly above normal for the month of November, December has more than made up the difference with one morning in the teens and single digits! Brrr!!!

Morning low temperatures on December 8th.

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So the big question everyone wants to know is, “where’s the snow?”. It’s out there, just the significant stuff hasn’t arrived yet. This past week it fell in some unlikely areas!

Snowfall during the week of December 4th.

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We’ve seen two events in Oklahoma, a dusting way out west for the first one, and just flurries for the second. So where’s the real snow at? Let’s see what the models suggest is possible down the road…

The next 10 days doesn’t look very eventful around Oklahoma. Here are the temperatures and expected precipitation (literally a sprinkle on the 14th) for OKC. Other towns will be similar.

10 day forecast for OKC

What about beyond 10 days and out to 15? That’s where things get interesting as we approach Christmas Day. We finally get some cold air back into the state as overnight lows dip below 30 degrees.

Ensemble runs of extended temperatures to Christmas in OKC.

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The question is, does this set things up for what’s to come next? Well, if we take a look at a different model around the Christmas time frame, it seems to think we’ll have an upper level storm system producing rain, sleet, and snow across the south on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Take a look:

Animation of the developing storm system for Christmas.

Let’s break this down for each time period.

Christmas Eve Day (snow across S OK and TX in blue:

Christmas Eve Day

Christmas Eve night (heavy snow for DFW):

Christmas Eve Night

Christmas Day (Ice for DFW in red):

Christmas Day

Now before we all get crazy jumping up and down like Santa just brought us a giant candy cane sized present, we need to see if this is going to be a lump of coal instead. What is the trend? See the last 4 model outputs for the same time period on Christmas Eve Day below. Is this new or has the model been shifting this direction the past few days. Unfortunately it’s brand spanking new and that doesn’t give this forecaster much confidence at this point, but it is something I’ll be watching very closely! So stay tuned!!! -AT

Model trend showing the same time period had been forecasted to be dry in prior runs.

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