Another decent winter storm is moving across Oklahoma on Tuesday. Light precipitation will begin early morning along the Red River and progress northward. While it should remain rain across S/SE OK, the rest of the state will brace itself for more ice and snow. How much are we talking? Let’s get into it!

As most systems are around here, there is a fine line from who gets the ice and who gets the snow and models don’t always do a great job at threading the needle. This storm will be no different in that regard, but I will narrow it down to the best of my ability. First off, yes we will get wintry precipitation and yes it will be in the form of ice and snow. It’s about an 18 hour window of precipitation with most confined in the 12 hour portion of it (ie mid morning to early evening).

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As it looks now the best area to see anywhere from a tenth of an inch of ice to as much as a quarter is once again along and near the I-44 corridor including both OKC and Tulsa. The models like C OK better and thus the map below will indicate that.

Freezing rain accumulation on Tuesday.

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To get an idea on the thin transition line, here are a couple of “looks” from the different models. Notice the pink/purple area (ice) and how it’s distributed.

Model #1

Model #2

Model #3

So as you can deduct, the take home is be ready for a mix of ice and snow in C OK and along the I-44 corridor. This will make it difficult to pinpoint exact amounts when it comes to snow. Speaking of snow, you can also see how it’s all snow W and N across the state in the blue areas. How much? Let’s take a look at a few guesses.

Model #1

Model #2

Model #3

Model #4

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Model #5

That’s 5 different model solutions to choose from and we’re just now getting into that 48 hour window. From here out they ‘should’ continue to improve and narrow down the totals a bit more. The take home here is how things will vary in the ice region. Less ice, more snow, more ice less snow. Whereas parts of N/NE OK has a potential to receive several inches. For me, I’m going with model #1 on the snow output at this point along with the ice map I showed earlier. The storm will affect travel during the day. Wednesday morning will also be affected from whatever falls Tuesday and any additional light activity that will move through overnight or early morning, so be careful! I’ll have more on my Facebook page and Twitter, so make sure you follow me there for the quickest updates.

By the way, if you like my content consider supporting me on Patreon. Link is below. My Patrons will gain exclusive access to a live and interactive Severe Weather Presentation on the 27th. See my blog post for more info. Finally, pick up my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo to track this winter storm. -AT

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