Last night we focused on the operational runs of the computer models. I discounted the hi-res short-term ensemble run because it differed so vastly. Well, after looking at trends this morning, I’ve decided to lean towards the solution it provides. This means a flip in where the heaviest snow totals will lie and even at this lunchtime update, it’s still not set in stone. Tonight I will take a look at everything again and make the final call. 

These maps sum up my concern for more sleet and less snow across OKC and even Tulsa. We’ll look simply at probabilities of outcome. OKC is located dead center on the maps.

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The most likely area of snowfall occuring along and west of the I-44 corridor.

Mean snowfall totals but actual amounts will be much higher.

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Freezing rain probability increased along the I-44 corridor.

Sleet probability also increasing in same region.

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The take home at this point is that it’s possible to pick up a quarter to an inch of sleet during this event in C OK which would limit the snow amounts. The longer it sleets or gets mixed with freezing rain, the less overall snow will occur. Indications are that it could last through noon with the first wave and only the second lighter wave moving through late afternoon/evening would produce snow. It’s a messy forecast for sure and one that will cause travel and power impacts across the state regardless on how much of any particular precipitation type you get. Stay tuned! -AT

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