After a hard freeze, a warm-up will ensue! A weak disturbance is bringing a few showers and storms across the state tonight, which will protect us from seeing another freeze. Long-term, I don’t see any more cold nights ahead like that for the rest of the month. We may get a surprise chill in early April, but time is running out for that, as the pattern is getting warmer across the nation.

Rain moving through overnight.

Rainfall totals expected.

So the weather Sunday will be very nice after the rain moves out very early morning. Look for temperatuers to rebound into the 60s with no problem.

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Temperatures Sunday morning. No freeze!

All eyes shift to Monday as a potential severe weather day sets up. But there’s a problem with that. The system is coming in too late and without adequate moisture in place. As a matter of fact, it’s a last minute run for the moisture as the system moves through overnight into Tuesday morning. This causes discrepencies in the model data, as most keep it dry with a weak CAP in place. I’ve outlined that below in the forecast sounding, as well as a weakness in the lower wind field in both direction and speed. This causes storms to lose their organized supercelluar structure and causes sustained updrafts to fall apart. Translation, very hard to get severe weather in this environment, and that includes tornadoes. That said, new data will come in and grasp the atmosphere a little better each time. The severe storm window is from 9pm to 3am from W to C OK with anything left, moving east and dying out. At this point I could see an isolated storm or two hanging tough for awhile. We’ll see what happens…

Upper disturbance comes in too late.

Circled areas highlight weakness in storm environment.

Analogs show this a low probability event.

Best conditions out in W OK during evening.

Severe weather parameters shift into C OK around midnight to 3am.

Some models do suggest storms will develop.

After this round of potential severe weather, all is quiet until about the end of the Month when things will get active heading into April. Temperatures for this upcoming week are very nice into the 60s and 70s statewide! There will be weak cold fronts from time to time, but Spring has Sprung! -AT

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