Are you ready for storms and then a nice long stretch of more Fall-like temperatures?

A strong cold front will arrive Sunday afternoon into C/NE OK. Timing will be around 4pm for both OKC and Tulsa. Expect showers and storms to develop along the front. However, the atmosphere ahead of the boundary is capped, which means the storms will have a tough time forming and when they do, they’ll be elevated in nature. The speed of the front and alignment to the storms will undercut the updrafts to help reduce the severe weather magnitude. As a result, expect a few areas to see hail up to an inch in size and wind gusts up to about 50 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has the area placed in just a marginal category, ie, weak event.

Temperatures falling behind Front.

Rain develops ahead of and behind the cold front Sunday afternoon.

SPC severe weather threats.

Maximum wind gusts expected.

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The best area for stronger storms will be co-located with the lightning map shown below, so bascially eastern Oklahoma. Also rainfall totals will be decent out there as well, but paltry in C OK.

Forecasted lightning density strikes.

Rainfall amounts expected.

Regarding the long term outlook, there will be a few cold fronts that work through, but rainfall amounts look slim to none. You can see how much below normal the Sunday front will affect things, and yet a stronger one around the 2nd of October.

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Temperature anomalies on Tuesday morning.

Temperature anomalies on Friday morning.

Here are the temperatures for OKC and Tulsa. Other areas in Oklahoma will be similar. Be sure to use my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo to get your specific forecast in your backyard. Download it from Apple and Google Play stores. -AT

OKC extended forecast.

Tulsa extended forecast.

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