Some big news regarding Hurricane Delta. But first a quick look at Oklahoma weather.

The upper pattern is going to be quiet as a ridge builds in across the western half of the US. This allows our temperatures to increase a bit, so it will be warmer for a few days before another cold front cools us back down. OKC and Tulsa are posted below for examples, but similar elsewhere across the state. Rain will be hard to come by over the next 7-10 days. Maybe a signal showing up around the 14th.

OKC long-range outlook.

Tulsa long-range outlook.

Center Phase Energy

Back to Delta. The hurricane season isn’t finished yet and more activity has been occurring in the Caribbean and Gulf.  Gamma is falling apart just offshore of Mexico, but will help to influence Delta by bringing that storm towards it. This may end up causing a direct hit of Cancún as a strong CAT 3 storm Tuesday night. The water temperatures will allow for rapid strengthening during the day Tuesday. Notice how the waters are cooler in the northern Gulf. More on that in a moment.

Current satellite view of Delta getting organized. Will change rapidly overnight and Tuesday.

Warm water will fuel rapid intensification.

Cancún in the immediate path Tuesday night.

After the storm hits Mexico it will weaken somewhat and then re-strengthen into the Gulf of Mexico. The upper Jetstream pattern will guide Delta back towards the LA coastline once again. As of now, a centered model approach would be the central LA coast. It’s still early however, and subtle changes to the track at the end of its journey can still occur. Also the cooler temperatures of the ocean and slight wind shear aloft should either weaken it some as it approaches the US coastline, or at least prevent it from strengthening further. Indications are that it could arrive as a Category 3 hurricane on Friday.

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Upper Jetstream pattern directing Delta.

The European ensemble model has it clustered on the W side of LA while the American GFS model has it more centered. Other models have it more east, but the take home is that currently, Louisiana needs to prepare for another direct hurricane hit.

European ensembles.

American ensembles.

Other model tracks.

Hurricane model hit on the C LA coastline Friday.

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I’ll have another update on Delta soon. Be sure to follow my Facebook and Twitter accounts for quick updates. Also, if you know of a loved one along the LA coast, have them download my weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, to warn them of tornadoes that will occur with the storm. -AT

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