We’re stuck in a rainy and cooler rut. That’s not a bad thing necessarily, considering we’re well into our Summer. However, we saw quite a bit of rain over the last few days (~8″) so rivers, creeks, ponds, and lakes are filled! Any additional rainfall will lead to flooding events for some. We also pretty much eradicated what was left of the drought conditions.

Rainfall totals since Friday.

Drought conditions as of last week, update will wipe away.

The Jetstream pattern responsible for our break in the heat and the abundance of precipitation, has led to record setting heat in the Pacific NW as they bake under the 100s+. The good news is the pattern is changing by midweek. The ridge will move away from the NW cooling them down and the upper low will move away from Oklahoma with a ridge developing down south. Normally the ridge would squash the rain, but it’s weak and the trough to our north is driving in weak cold fronts that fall apart. That keeps the isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm pattern going all week long. By the weekend, the upper low returns across the Midwest and we get into a NW flow aloft. This will bring in a strong front on Friday or Saturday, which should clear us out for Sunday, so most of us stay dry for the 4th.

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Jetstream pattern currently.

Jetstream pattern midweek.

Jetstream pattern by Sunday.

Now each day isn’t a washout and there will be plenty of dry hours. However, rain is expected at some point each day and it will be sporadic and random. So use my weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, to keep track of dangerous storms approaching or lightning in the area to give you time to rap up your outdoor activities. The model forecasted rainfall through the week gives you the idea with the heaviest activity with the stronger front on Friday or possibly Saturday. I can’t rule out a stray shower or storm especially across NE OK late Sunday, but it’s still early in the game and that small chance could vaporize later on.

Rainfall animation through the week.

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Rainfall totals are going to be significant once you add up each day over the 6 day period. The short-term hi-res model is shown below to indicate there will be flooding spots where amounts in isolated areas may exceed 5″. Otherwise the overall average looks to be about 2-3″ statewide.

Short-term rain totals.

Blended average rainfall totals over the coming days.

The temperature trend across the state is 60s at night and 80s during the day. Here is a look at OKC:

Temperature trend in OKC

Long-range models indicates the Jetstream will be fairly active and unstable. This will allow an upper low to form over Oklahoma after the Independence Day holiday weekend which will crank up additional showers and storms through the 2nd week of July. Get those lawnmowers tuned up! On a serious note, never travel across flooded roadways. You don’t know if it’s been washed out. If that connects to a river or large creek, you’re in trouble. Turn around, don’t drown. -AT

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