Unfortunately we’re now into the month of May which is our peak of severe weather season. We have two days this week where severe weather is expected. Although specifics are still murky on the Wednesday event, the ball is crystal clear for Monday and it looks pretty bad.

Long-range SPC outlook.

NWS severe weather outlook.

NWS severe weather outlook.

Tornado zone.

Potential severe weather threat Wednesday.

I’m having a hard time finding a reason why we won’t see quite a few supercells on Monday. There are two things that could have a lessoning effect on storm strength. Lingering cloud cover from morning showers and storms, and a weak 250mb jet. Both are wildcards in this event. At this time, they don’t appear to hold much weight. I’ll see what things look like in tomorrow’s data when I update you at lunchtime. But as of now, I’m expecting all the ingredients we need for large and damaging hail, wind, and tornadoes. The tornadoes will likely be significant in strength with the possibility of becoming violent. This would place them in the EF2-EF4 range. The area of concern is across Kansas once again, southward along the dryline into C OK.

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In the morning there will be widespread showers and storms and some of these may be borderline severe. As a matter of fact, I can’t rule out a tornado or two, especially across S/SE OK with this first wave that moves through. The timing of this can take people off guard, so be aware. Tap the map below to play the animation of the storms.

Radar animation through Monday night. (Tap to play)

Tomorrow, the setup will showcase a triple point low and a meso-low. The first along the Kansas border and the second SW of the OKC metro. Both are areas where supercell storms will develop by late afternoon, after 4pm. The dewpoints will be much higher tomorrow with some 70s returning. The CAP will be nearly nonexistent along the dryline. The significant tornado parameter is off the chart across the areas. A forecast sounding is shown below which indicates the severe weather indices we’ll have in the atmosphere across C/N OK. We haven’t had this setup all season. Monday will be the first.

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Dewpoint map Monday afternoon

Forecast sounding for C OK.

The model I’m favoring the most for this outcome is the Texas Tech WRF which indicates the supercells across KS, southward. It also shows long helicity tracks which can be indicative of long-tracked tornadoes given this environment. The HRRR model also fires storms along the dryline as indicated by the cloud product, although they fall apart. I buy the development, but I don’t buy into the demise. This places the greater OKC metro area under favorable conditions for tornadoes.

TT WRF output of supercell storms.

Helicity tracks (likely tornadic related)

HRRR storm initiation and movement to metro region.

My wording on this blog is quite a bit stronger than typical. Take that as a warning and a reflection of higher than normal confidence in a negative outcome. You know what to do and I’ll be there to cover the storms with you in my live broadcasts to keep you calm and focused. Be sure to share my live storm coverage from Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter with your friends and family. Also don’t forget to download my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, if you haven’t done so already, it will predict tornadoes before they occur, giving you more time to prepare.

Temperatures this week will be mostly pleasant, but heat up over the weekend. -AT

OKC Temperature Trend

 

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