Finally! We’re getting some much needed rainfall across the western half of Oklahoma this week. Of course it’s going to come with flash flooding in some areas. Then we focus on Memorial Day Weekend. By the way, Sunday was amazing! Very chilly to start the day but a great finish!

Sunday morning low temperatures.

Sunday afternoon temperatures.

The upper level Jetstream pattern shows that a lot of energy/lift (brighter colors) moves through Oklahoma Monday, Tuesday, and exiting Wednesday. This will bring a few rounds of rainfall. Then we get into a temporary dry NW flow which allows for some very nice weather. Through Friday, the winds won’t be an issue like they’ve been over the past few weeks. Notice how the long range SPC Severe Weather Outlook is mostly quiet for us. Our May did not live up to its reputation. This will be the 3rd year in a row of a lack luster severe weather season. That’s fine by me, as it means less tornadoes!

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Jetstream flow (tap to animate)

SPC Severe Weather Outlook

​The model data shows the first round starts mid Monday morning and continues into the evening, while the second round moves through Tuesday. Any additional rainfall should wrap up Wednesday morning. Amounts look to be quite excessive, so much so, flash flooding may become an issue around C OK. Even the conservative model blend has amounts in excess of 2″. So this looks like a great setup for us.

Rainfall through Tuesday night. (Tap to animate)


Estimated model rainfall this week.

Model blend conservative estimation.

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Things quiet down for Wednesday into Sunday, but the wind will return starting Friday night. So expect the Memorial Day Weekend to be quite windy and warm with gusts up to 40 mph again from the south. On Sunday night into Memorial Day a weak cold front will move through NW OK into C OK before stalling out and washing out. Rain signals are nearly non-existent, but that’s a silly move by the models with a front in the area. So even though they say dry, at this point I’m going to call for isolated thunderstorm activity Sunday night and Monday. So plan accordingly.

Weak cold front on Memorial Day

Temperatures look good and very cool to start off the week, before returning to more seasonal temperatures over the weekend. -AT

Center Phase Energy

OKC Temperature trend.

 

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