I do have some good news for this forecast period. A decent cold front will dial back the heat this week before we return to those nasty 100s in true Summer fashion.
The Jetstream places the upper ridge of high pressure across the 4-corners area. Weak disturbances flow around the high and some of that energy will drift through Oklahoma Monday into Wednesday. At the same time the cold front will slowly work through. Although the atmosphere is fairly dry and stable, we still should be able to kick off some glorified sprinkles/showers with the front late Monday night/Tuesday morning. The better opportunity for rain comes Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as the 850 mb frontal layer (which is a few thousand feet off the surface) acts like a convergence zone to generate some elevated showers and storms. That’s the best we can hope for and it isn’t much. The next opportunity for rain may come Sunday night, but that’s a big “may” at this point.
Other than that slim shot at rain, the overall picture keeps most of Oklahoma dry through the period. At least temperatures will cool down as mid 90s return in C OK thanks to the front. As long as the upper ridge stays far enough away to the west, it’s not an extremely hot pattern for us yet. Any time it creeps closer, our temperatures go up. That will probably happen in the extended forecast beyond this week. So enjoy the “mini” cool-down while we have it.
We’ve seen four days officially at 100 degrees or hotter in Oklahoma City. Other areas of course have surpassed that. The mesonet keeps track of how many days at or over 100 degrees each sensor has recorded.
The long range outlook doesn’t look good for the latter half of July with regards to the heat and the rain. The drought will expand more and excessive heat warnings will continue like they are down in Texas currently.
The temperature trend for OKC looks like the following. See you on the next blog and stay cool! -AT